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Nov 1 – The Simple Case for saying Obama is the FAVORITE

Via: Nate Silver – NYT

If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a “tossup.”

What I find confounding about this is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is:

Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

A somewhat-more-complicated version:

Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.

Read more, HERE:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nov-1-the-simple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/

***

And the bottom-line numbers:

Electoral Votes:

Obama = 305.3

Romney = 232.7

. . .

Chance of Winning:

Obama = 83.7%

Romney = 16.3%

. . .

Popular Vote (NOT that it matters)

Obama = 50.6%

Romney = 48.4%

***

photo:

‘Inauguration Day II’ – January 20, 2013

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November 3, 2012 - Posted by | 2012, President Obama, Romney | , , , , , , , , ,

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