Nate Silver’s Super Bowl prediction

Via: Salon

Thirty-four-year-old statistician Nate Silver, described by the AP as an “unabashed numbers geek,” stopped by “The Colbert Report” to share his predictions for the Super Bowl on Sunday.

Silver, who accurately predicted the presidential winner in ALL 50 STATES on his blog in 2012, FiveThirtyEight, has moved from covering politics with the New York Times to covering sports at ESPN.

Of the move, Silver told Colbert: “There’s a lot of coverage you see in politics that’s really just gossip about a serious subject, and we want to take a fun subject and be overly serious about it at times.”

But Silver’s analysis of this year’s Super Bowl winner is tough, admits Silver, because both teams are “really good.”

“This is only the eighth time that the two best teams  (Denver Number 1 offense – Seattle Number 1 defense) have met in the Super Bowl,” he said. “Usually someone gets upset along the way, so that makes my job really tough.”

Although “the numbers say it’s going to be a tie,” Silver is betting on the Seattle Seahawks, because their numbers were great last year, too.

http://www.salon.com/2014/01/28/here_is_nate_silvers_prediction_for_the_super_bowl/

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Good enough for me – GO HAWKS!

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Nov 1 – The Simple Case for saying Obama is the FAVORITE

Via: Nate Silver – NYT

If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a “tossup.”

What I find confounding about this is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is:

Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

A somewhat-more-complicated version:

Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.

Read more, HERE:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nov-1-the-simple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/

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And the bottom-line numbers:

Electoral Votes:

Obama = 305.3

Romney = 232.7

. . .

Chance of Winning:

Obama = 83.7%

Romney = 16.3%

. . .

Popular Vote (NOT that it matters)

Obama = 50.6%

Romney = 48.4%

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photo:

‘Inauguration Day II’ – January 20, 2013

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